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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win oranı 52.4% Settled prediction outcome
Average Yatırım Getirisi (ROI) -10.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 166 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 87W 79L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
ENG PR
Members Settled
Hull City Man United
Final score 2 : 0 KAZAN
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PER L1
Members Settled
Alianza Sporting Cristal
Final score 3 : 1 KAZAN
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SPA D1
Members Settled
Real Betis Real Sociedad
Final score 1 : 0 KAZAN
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ENG PR
Members Settled
Arsenal Coventry City
Final score 3 : 0 KAZAN
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FRA D1
Members Settled
Marseille Strasbourg
Final score 4 : 0 KAZAN
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Benfica Aarhus AGF
Final score 3 : 1 KAZAN
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SPA D1
Members Settled
Rayo Vallecano Alaves
Final score 1 : 1 KAYBET
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UEFA ECL
Free Settled
FC Sion AFC Ajax
Final score 2 : 4 KAYBET
1X2 Home Probability 50%
Model confidence 51%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Crvena Zvezda Viktoria Plzen
Final score 3 : 0 KAYBET
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Lech Poznan Thun
Final score 7 : 0 KAYBET
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UEFA EL
Members Settled
Trabzonspor Ferencvarosi
Final score 0 : 1 KAYBET
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UEFA ECL
Members Settled
Tromso IL Brighton
Final score 0 : 0 KAYBET
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.