Probability desk · GMT+8
Football forecasts with the black box opened.
A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.
- Engine
- POISSON-WTD-V2
- Markets
- 1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
- Review
- Human approved
- Tracking
- Automatic settlement
Audited output
Settled prediction performance
Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.
Published board
Latest AI predictions
Members
Settled
Bromma
Malmo FF
Final score
1 : 2
LOSE
Member probability model
Sign in with an active membership to reveal the selected prediction and confidence.
Free
Settled
Arka Gdynia
Stal Rzeszow
Final score
4 : 0
LOSE
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63%
Model confidence
49%
Members
Settled
Golden Arrows
Chippa United
Final score
0 : 0
LOSE
Member probability model
Sign in with an active membership to reveal the selected prediction and confidence.
Free
Settled
Hacken
Kalmar
Final score
1 : 1
WIN
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62%
Model confidence
52%
Members
Settled
Thailand
Malaysia
Final score
2 : 0
WIN
Member probability model
Sign in with an active membership to reveal the selected prediction and confidence.
No predictions match this view yet.
Method, not magic
What the model actually does
- 01Read
Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.
- 02Estimate
Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.
- 03Review
Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.
- 04Audit
Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.