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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Menang tarif 52.4% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -10.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 166 No backfilled atau hidden outcomes
Record 87W 79L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
POL PR
Members Settled
GKS Katowice Radomiak Radom
Final score 3 : 1 MENANG
Member probability model

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DEN SASL
Members Settled
Silkeborg FC Copenhagen
Final score 1 : 3 KALAH
Member probability model

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POL D1
Members Settled
Stal Mielec Podbeskidzie
Final score 3 : 3 MENANG
Member probability model

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NOR D1
Members Settled
Aalesund FK Tromso IL
Final score 2 : 6 MENANG
Member probability model

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SUI Sl
Members Settled
Vaduz St. Gallen
Final score 2 : 3 MENANG
Member probability model

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SWE D1
Members Settled
Bromma Malmo FF
Final score 1 : 2 KALAH
Member probability model

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POL D1
Free Settled
Arka Gdynia Stal Rzeszow
Final score 4 : 0 KALAH
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 49%
SWE D1
Free Settled
Hacken Kalmar
Final score 1 : 1 MENANG
BTTS Yes Probability 62%
Model confidence 52%
AFF Cup
Members Settled
Thailand Malaysia
Final score 2 : 0 MENANG
Member probability model

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SAPL D1
Members Settled
Golden Arrows Chippa United
Final score 0 : 0 KALAH
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.