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Probability desk · GMT+8

Football forecasts with the black box opened.

A transparent weighted-Poisson baseline compares 1X2, goals 2.5, BTTS and correct-score signals, then publishes only one selected prediction per match. Every prediction is reviewed before publication and measured after the final whistle.

Explore predictions How it works
MODEL STATUSONLINE
Engine
POISSON-WTD-V3
Markets
1X2 · O/U 2.5 · BTTS · SCORE
Review
Human approved
Tracking
Automatic settlement
Audited output

Settled prediction performance

Calculated only from published predictions after final scores are recorded.

Track record
Win السعر 52.4% Settled prediction outcome
Average ROI -10.0% Across settled predictions with recorded odds
Sample size 166 No backfilled or hidden outcomes
Record 87W 79L 0D Updated when results settle
Published board

Latest AI predictions

Status
Signal
FIN D1
Free Settled
Gnistan Helsinki Ilves Tampere
Final score 3 : 2 الفوز
BTTS Yes Probability 63%
Model confidence 48%
MLS
Members Settled
Nashville SC Inter Miami CF
Final score 4 : 1 الفوز
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SPA D1
Members Settled
Sevilla Rayo Vallecano
Final score 2 : 1 الفوز
Member probability model

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HOL D1
Members Settled
Fortuna Sittard SC Cambuur
Final score 3 : 1 خسارة
Member probability model

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ENG LCH
Members Settled
Wolves Blackburn Rovers
Final score 2 : 2 خسارة
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INT CF
Free Settled
Atalanta Ath. Bilbao
Final score 1 : 0 خسارة
BTTS Yes Probability 59%
Model confidence 48%
UEFA EL
Members Settled
Egnatia Shamrock Rovers
Final score 5 : 1 الفوز
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UEFA EL
Free Settled
Hearts Benfica
Final score 1 : 1 الفوز
Correct score 1:1 Probability 12%
Model confidence 47%
INT CF
Members Settled
Coruna Real Madrid
Final score 0 : 1 خسارة
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UEFA SC
Free Settled
Psg Aston Villa
Final score 2 : 1 الفوز
1X2 Home Probability 53%
Model confidence 60%
INT CF
Members Settled
Nottingham Leverkusen
Final score 2 : 1 الفوز
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POR D1
Members Settled
Santa Clara Madeira
Final score 2 : 2 الفوز
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Method, not magic

What the model actually does

  1. 01Read

    Uses recorded final scores already available to OptaTips. Recent matches carry more weight.

  2. 02Estimate

    Builds expected home and away goals, then converts them into market probabilities.

  3. 03Review

    Keeps every generated forecast in draft until an editor approves it for publication.

  4. 04Audit

    Settles published predictions against final scores and exposes the resulting track record.